A Weather Warning!

Ian D J

Ian D J

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Ian D J
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Well, it's been a while, but here it is!

I did it for one other certain web site, but thought I'd show it in here as well.

I think it's now time to issue a "final" warning for the South East of the UK. The graphic below shows how things should pan out at 1 pm Sunday afternoon.

StormWarningforFeb28th.jpg


What's happening? It's where an active low pressure system will be passing by Kent as it tracks it's way along the English Channel in a north-eastwards direction (as shown by the grey dashed line).
That low pressure may even "bomb" (go into cyclogenesis mode, that's when it deepens rapidly in matters of hours, then relaxes just as quickly) in doing so.

So, what will it do? As the centre of the low pressure passes by to the south of Kent during lunchtime, it's going to bring gale force winds along the south coast, peaking at around 1 pm where winds could gust up to 70 mph. Possibly higher over exposed places.
As well as the wind, there will be heavy rain. Between 25 to 40 mm is expected to fall across Kent between 9 am Sunday Morning and 12 am midnight. Flooding is very likely, especially since the rain will fall on what is already saturated soil.

How long will it last and what should we do?: Kent should start to feel the effects of this low pressure by 9 am onwards, peaking at 1 to 3 pm before easing away as we go into the evening.
During that time, I can imagine ferry crossing being cancelled and road travel will be disrupted. So, only travel if you absolutely have to.
I'm hoping this low pressure center will stay to the south of us. If it decided to track further north (moving inland) then that really will cause big problems as winds will be even stronger to the south of that low pressure.
As things does stand, it looks like France and Belgium bearing the brunt of it with winds getting up to 90 mph down there.
 
deep joy. thanks for that. looks like a day in then
 
Oh great, I'm supposed to be off shopping tomorrow as well before the joyous week of Maths and Science exams on Tuesday and Friday!
 
Ill yell you what its going to be like tomorrow morning as its set to pass Guernsey at midnight tonight.

Spike
 
lauren_t said:
Oh great, I'm supposed to be off shopping tomorrow as well before the joyous week of Maths and Science exams on Tuesday and Friday!
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If you're living in Kent then I'd hold back on the travelling around tomorrow. However, things are going to become a lot more settled for most of next week (more in the way of drier weather).

SpikeK6 said:
Ill yell you what its going to be like tomorrow morning as its set to pass Guernsey at midnight tonight.

Spike
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Even if it seemed like only a mild affair as it passes over your area, there's a chance that this low pressure could "bomb" (become deeper) as it continue on it's northeast track over the English Channel.
But I will keep an eye out for your post. :)
 
sheddy said:
I think I absolutely have to travel down with a camera or two!
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There is that! I wouldn't need to travel very far what with me living next to the (now disused) Folkestone Harbour.
In case you are interested, high tide is at 10.30 am along the Kent coast, the peak of the storm with 50-plus mph gusts is expected to occur between 11 am and 3 pm tomorrow.
But hope your camera is waterproof as this storm system has a lot of rain wrapped in it.
 
Lets hope tomorrow's a Michael Fish jobber, meaning in reality it's inversly proportional to what's forcasted and you'll get a hot, calm and sunny day down in Kent :thumbs: :p
 
I guess I'm probably seeing this system first and it's nasty. Short periods of torrential rain but by God it's windy. The French authorities have a "Red Alert" for the department I'm in (and 3 others) with forecasts of 70kmh and gusts of 100kmh by 3.00am UK time.

Time to put the cat out and go to bed now ;)

Bob
 
Well, my prediction is ALMOST going according to plan. The low pressure center is taking on a more easterly direction and is crossing over the north of France rather than moving over the English Channel.
As a result that would spare us the worse of the winds as the strongest winds always occur to the south of an active low pressure system.
But, having said things are still going to get very blowy at around lunchtime anyway and the main focus is the rain. It's seriously wet here . . . very wet as my rain gauge had collected 16 mm since 3 am this morning.
Carry on raining like this for the rest of the day and I can easily see me picking up an inch of rain by 9 pm tonight. That will make for some flooding, especially since the soil is already heavily saturated from previous rainfalls (including that thunderstorm we had last Thursday!).
 
My chainsaw is sharpened up and at the ready :D
More fuel for the log burner Vicar :lol:

Thanks for the heads up Ian, I still predict we are due more snow and cold weather before April ;)
 
u8myufo said:
My chainsaw is sharpened up and at the ready :D
More fuel for the log burner Vicar :lol:

Thanks for the heads up Ian, I still predict we are due more snow and cold weather before April ;)
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That's quite alright. And yes, I think we are as winter throws one last lucky dice.

I've just walked down to the beach hoping to take interesting wave photos, but it didn't work out as 1) Lighting was really poor 2) It was hissing it down with rain, the lens got covered with droplets before I even had a chance to turn the thing on and 3) There was very little splash waves. That was because the wind is blowing in a north east direction thus pushing the waves back away from the south-facing cliff and the sea wall. As a result the sea was as calm as a mill pond! :D :lol: :nuts:
Tides did look really high, though! If the wind was coming in from the South West then it would have been spectacular!
 
Ian D J said:
That's quite alright. And yes, I think we are as winter throws one last lucky dice.

I've just walked down to the beach hoping to take interesting wave photos, but it didn't work out as 1) Lighting was really poor 2) It was hissing it down with rain, the lens got covered with droplets before I even had a chance to turn the thing on and 3) There was very little splash waves. That was because the wind is blowing in a north east direction thus pushing the waves back away from the south-facing cliff and the sea wall. As a result the sea was as calm as a mill pond! :D :lol: :nuts:
Tides did look really high, though! If the wind was coming in from the South West then it would have been spectacular!
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Thats a shame :( I am sure with a bit of imagination you could replicate a few waves in the bath, nobody will know :lol::lol: Tis strange with all this weather that you get the mill pond effect in the sea.
 
Mods/admin can't we ban Ian for keep getting his weather forecasts right?! I'm getting fed up with rain, sleet, snow, hail, cold weather etc etc!

Any chance of some warm weather predictions Ian?!
 
arclight said:
http://www.seafordweather.co.uk/wl/UKWindMap.htm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/
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:thumbs: :) Ties in very nicely with my own prediction, apart from that low pressure center travelling a little further south so therefore winds over Kent isn't being as strong than I thought.
Bringing some nasty conditions over central France though as winds are getting up to 80 mph over there, sadly it's resulting in a number of deaths.
I'd say that this is being a close shave for us.
 
Passed over us just after midnight and to be honest it was no worse than anything else we get here.

Strong winds but nothing major and a rain just made worse with the wind.

Spike
 
Jersey would get it worse if like you say it went over france, its closer.

Going to get worse next week for us all as the very high spring tides are here, for three days the sea front road is going to be blocked off for saftey.
Many houses will be flooded as usual at this time of year in the lower lying area's, part of island life really.

Hope it does not get too bad up your way.

spike
 
Well actually nothing really to report up here, Ian
( a hundred or so miles Nor by nor west of Kent, as the crow flies)
Yep its a bit wet with a stiff breeze but nothing to really report.
Although the local met office issued a "severe warning"
but what do they know :shrug: :D
 
Up here in the west of Scotland it's blowy and extremely cold. I just went out to take some quick pictures of a submarine passing by and nearly froze my knackers off. The hills are covered in snow too and have been for a week now, but at sea level, the snow isn't lying.
 
I'm FOR anything that put the wind up the french!!:D
 
So, what's the prediction for this summer then? Do we get a good'un after such, what seems, a long snowy, wet, cold, 'orrible winter; or is it going to be a washout?
 
Yep! ALL of that! :D
 
wontolla said:
Yep! ALL of that! :D
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You've just saved me the effort. :D :D :D

Being serious though, I wouldn't and couldn't imagine how this summer would turn out.
Just as long as it isn't packed with long-lasting heatwaves, as after all I do work in a tomato greenhouse.
 
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