Is the VW group going bust?

[Mr Bump]

lots of talk across quite a few you tube channels that the VW group is in deep s***.
profits plunging across the board especially China
they have just asked all there German employee's to take a 10% pay cut.
saying way to expensive to make there cars in Germany but unions are to strong.
want to close 4 factories

 

[gman]

My initial suspicion would be their heavy investment in China is slumping due to the rise in competitive Chinese EV manufacturing.

There's a good article here: https://fortune.com/2024/08/01/volk...competition-china-us-europe-production-sales/

 

[Mr Bump]

Yes for sure they are tanking in China and that is where 50% off all there profits were. Also the Chinese government is hitting back at EU car manufacturers
with to the EU putting high tariff on there EV imports. VW is in very serious trouble .

 

[Clive K]

Not just China

Bad Business in the U.S.: Volkswagen Facing Yet Another Crisis

VW was hoping to rake in billions in profits from its U.S. operations. Now, though, it is looking like the company's all-electric plan for the region will create steep losses instead.

www.spiegel.de

One of the problems is that car manufacturers are restricted in the production of ICE against EV vehicles. If customers don't want to buy EVs the manufacturers can't make enough ICEs to meet the demand because of the prohibitive fines they would encounter.

 

[Mr Bump]

Not just China

Bad Business in the U.S.: Volkswagen Facing Yet Another Crisis

VW was hoping to rake in billions in profits from its U.S. operations. Now, though, it is looking like the company's all-electric plan for the region will create steep losses instead.

www.spiegel.de

One of the problems is that car manufacturers are restricted in the production of ICE against EV vehicles. If customers don't want to buy EVs the manufacturers can't make enough ICEs to meet the demand because of the prohibitive fines they would encounter.

its simply more VW is a very expensive company to run because it has a huge amount of its production in the EU with its very high costs.
Also in China no one is buying ICE anymore , the goverment are just not interested in ICE at all
getting a permit to register an ICE car is very difficult in city areas and VW do not make decent EV's for the chinese market.

China is the biggest car market in the world and the EU have put silly tariffs on there EVs so China are biting back and they will win easilly.

 

[woof woof]

I've seen some of this and although VW do seem to be struggling I don't believe they'll go bust.

I read some time ago that Seat will be moved out of passenger cars and I can believe that. I can also believe that VW may have to scale back or even close factories in Germany but I think that if they're in danger of actually going bust suddenly EV's wont be the magic bullet and ICE will be reprieved or the German Govt will find a way to provide massive help.

I just can't see VW being allowed to fail. Same with the French car industry. I think it'll be enabled to survive despite pretty much anything.

 

[woof woof]

China is the biggest car market in the world and the EU have put silly tariffs on there EVs so China are biting back and they will win easilly.

I assume you've read about some of the serious issues with Chinese EV's in China? As you may know Chinese EV's for export to Europe and presumably the UK and some other places are built to a higher standard and if these issues force Chinese EV manufacturers to build EV's for sale in China (and any other market where they're selling tat) to be built to the same spec as cars sent to western markets costs could rise and that could hit domestic sales as if the cost differential between Chinese and other EV's reduces the Chinese public may then well buy foreign even if it costs them more as the product will be less likely to cook their families or smash them through a brick wall. Time will tell how the Chinese Gov will react to any pressures placed on Chinese manufacturers either in other markets or the home market. These are communists/fascists with their own agenda after all, not a free market rule based "liberal" democracy.

On tariffs, I don't think they're silly if they're in response to unfair practices in China. I'd argue that if China or Chinese companies flaunt international laws or trade agreements or even just common decency then silly tariffs may be perfectly justified. After all, manufacturers in the west have to treat staff well, have health and safety in place, conform to regulations and wont last long if they start selling product at less than cost so why should "we" accept any of these things from Chinese companies?

 

[woof woof]

PS.
I think I've said this before. It may well be gossip or conspiracy theory but I'll repeat it.

Years ago when I worked for a group of manufacturing companies which supplied some European car companies the whisper was that electric was the future and there was no alternative. This was, so the story goes, nothing to do with saving the planet and everything to do with certain companies with their home governments ear (so that rules out the UK car industry) deciding that as they were getting their bottoms handed to them both in petrol and potentially in diesel too they had to move the goal posts and they thought EV would give them the edge. If this is either in whole or in part true or not we'll never know. I can believe it.

 

[ancient_mariner]

nothing to do with saving the planet and everything to do with certain companies with their home governments ear (so that rules out the UK car industry) deciding that as they were getting their bottoms handed to them both in petrol and potentially in diesel too they had to move the goal posts and they thought EV would give them the edge. If this is either in whole or in part true or not we'll never know. I can believe it.

How characteristic of 20th and 21st century Europeans not to seize a granted opportunity.

 

[Clive K]

I've seen some of this and although VW do seem to be struggling I don't believe they'll go bust.

I read some time ago that Seat will be moved out of passenger cars and I can believe that. I can also believe that VW may have to scale back or even close factories in Germany but I think that if they're in danger of actually going bust suddenly EV's wont be the magic bullet and ICE will be reprieved or the German Govt will find a way to provide massive help.

I just can't see VW being allowed to fail. Same with the French car industry. I think it'll be enabled to survive despite pretty much anything.

It isn't a government level decision. The EU have set the tariffs for exceeding the allowed ICE / EV quotas. Germany are already stepping back from the eco targets and as you say France is up the creek in the same way and has extended their dates for lower carbin emissions. Expect the EU to change its policy to rescue the big countries economies.

 

[Mr Bump]

It isn't a government level decision. The EU have set the tariffs for exceeding the allowed ICE / EV quotas. Germany are already stepping back from the eco targets and as you say France is up the creek in the same way and has extended their dates for lower carbin emissions. Expect the EU to change its policy to rescue the big countries economies.

the EU may change some of its policies to assist its own home car companies but its still not enough
the largest car market in the world is now offline to EU/ICE cars its game over for conventional ICE car companies.
people do want EVs but they want cheap ones not the expensive crap that VW and Audi are selling
the best selling EV in the world is made by Tesla for a reason, there will priced and reliable and brilliant

 

[simon ess]

people do want EVs

Which people is that, exactly?

I'm reminded of an interview I heard with Cliff Richard, not someone I'm a fan of, but something he said raised my respect for him.

Interviewer - "you've sold a million of this album in Britain. What's it like to be so popular"

"I'm not. 65 million people didn't buy it."

 

[Clive K]

the EU may change some of its policies to assist its own home car companies but its still not enough
the largest car market in the world is now offline to EU/ICE cars its game over for conventional ICE car companies.
people do want EVs but they want cheap ones not the expensive crap that VW and Audi are selling
the best selling EV in the world is made by Tesla for a reason, there will priced and reliable and brilliant

You are so obsessed with EVs that you can't see the wood for the trees. The largest market for EU/ICE vehicles is offline because of EU tariffs that can easily be reversed. And the sales of EVs has fallen for a reason. That being the financial incentives that are important to many buyers have been reduced. On a level playing field with no incentives and no quotas ICE vehicles would vastly outsell EVs.

There has been a concerted plan to firstly make EVs more attractive to buyers and secondly to penalise ICE vehicles in various ways. Despite that the demand for EVs is faling. That is a fact.

 

[gman]

You are so obsessed with EVs that you can't see the wood for the trees. The largest market for EU/ICE vehicles is offline because of EU tariffs that can easily be reversed. And the sales of EVs has fallen for a reason. That being the financial incentives that are important to many buyers have been reduced. On a level playing field with no incentives and no quotas ICE vehicles would vastly outsell EVs.

There has been a concerted plan to firstly make EVs more attractive to buyers and secondly to penalise ICE vehicles in various ways. Despite that the demand for EVs is faling. That is a fact.

I had forgotten about the penalising of ICE cars if enough EV's aren't sold, that's a good point.

Without getting into a whole EV discussion (I think there's already a thread for that) there is still little in the way of overcoming the charging problem for people who do not have their own driveways, which I'm sure will have an impact on EV sales.

 

[Steep]

You are so obsessed with EVs that you can't see the wood for the trees. The largest market for EU/ICE vehicles is offline because of EU tariffs that can easily be reversed. And the sales of EVs has fallen for a reason. That being the financial incentives that are important to many buyers have been reduced. On a level playing field with no incentives and no quotas ICE vehicles would vastly outsell EVs.

There has been a concerted plan to firstly make EVs more attractive to buyers and secondly to penalise ICE vehicles in various ways. Despite that the demand for EVs is faling. That is a fact.

You're missing the point, there's good reason why governments worldwide want to stop the use of fossil fuels. There isn't going to be any let up on penalising ice vehicles no matter how much you might wish it. The ICE is going the way of the dinosaur.

 

[Mr Bump]

You're missing the point, there's good reason why governments worldwide want to stop the use of fossil fuels. There isn't going to be any let up on penalising ice vehicles no matter how much you might wish it. The ICE is going the way of the dinosaur.

yep and that is the truth, the rise od loads of free renewable local electricity and move away from fossil fuels is a no brainer.

but the question was about VW and they are in serious trouble mainly due to there very high production costs
and the fact they have lost 50% of there profits from China

 

[gman]

Whilst I tend to prefer a more organic approach and let education and market forces steer us towards a better future, I do understand that sometimes a catalyst is required to speed things up, but you need to make sure that we can maintain that speed without falling over.

 

[BillN_33]

It would be interesting to see how many "first time" EV buyers replace it with another EV.

At this time I see our EV, a BMW i3, which we have had for 4 years as ONLY for use as a second car, (10,000 miles in 4 years ......any journey over "local" we use our X1 diesel) ...... my wife loves the i3 but all her miles are local.

If we were to replace the i3 it would be with a small hybrid or a small ICE and I cannot see me ever buying Chinese

 

[gman]

The short journey thing is interesting because I do a lot of short journeys and thought that an EV would be ideal, but according to a few EV owners I've chatted online with they aren't actually very efficient from cold and the batteries need to warm up.

It seems to me that:

• Long distance = diesel
• Moderately short distances = petrol / EV / Hybrid
• Very short distances = get your lazy ass on your bike

 

[Nod]

Mrs Nod did. Went from a Leaf to an i-Pace. Much more useable in terms of range, although not the longest range. IF we ever NEED to go further, we still have my ICE as an option.

 

[Nod]

Very short distances = get your lazy ass on your bike

Not a viable option for us! Steep hill from every direction to get home and often carrying a bulky load on the way home (up!) I did consider a cargo bike until I saw the cost of them (more expensive than a 125cc bike!) and realised I wouldn't be able to get it through the front door for security reasons.
The bus up this way is notoriously unreliable and at £3 each way each, it makes a round trip to/from town over a tenner - several hours of parking!

 

[gman]

Not a viable option for us! Steep hill from every direction to get home and often carrying a bulky load on the way home (up!) I did consider a cargo bike until I saw the cost of them (more expensive than a 125cc bike!) and realised I wouldn't be able to get it through the front door for security reasons.
The bus up this way is notoriously unreliable and at £3 each way each, it makes a round trip to/from town over a tenner - several hours of parking!

I was joking; as much as cycling can be a viable alternative, certainly for me there's a few things that put me off cycling in Glasgow:

• Crap roads
• Crap drivers
• Crap weather

Buses and trains aren't very good here.

 

[Clive K]

You're missing the point, there's good reason why governments worldwide want to stop the use of fossil fuels. There isn't going to be any let up on penalising ice vehicles no matter how much you might wish it. The ICE is going the way of the dinosaur.

Eventually. But there is a healthy distrust of battery life, cost of replacing batteries, charging infrastructure and trade in prices of EVs. If they were so popular governments would not have to subsidise their prices.

yep and that is the truth, the rise od loads of free renewable local electricity and move away from fossil fuels is a no brainer.

but the question was about VW and they are in serious trouble mainly due to there very high production costs
and the fact they have lost 50% of there profits from China

Where is this free electricity? As I read it, there is a projected shortfall in electricity production short term and German industry is increasingly moving abroad to avoid high electricity costs.

 

[Steep]

Eventually. But there is an unhealthy and purely ignorant distrust of battery life, cost of replacing batteries Batteries do not need repalcing, they're good for 20 plus years and then still of use elsewhere , charging infrastructure is growing exponentially and few people will ever need it and trade in prices of EVs trade in prices of all cars is falling. If they were so popular governments would not have to subsidise their prices "if they were so popular".... people said the same about ice cars, my horse doesn't need petrol..etc. etc.

 

[Clive K]

How can you be so sure that battery life will be 20 years? Current batteries on ICE vehicles are recommended to change every five years or so and batteries suplied with cameras, bikes, phones, etc can show serious decline after 2 or 3 years. People see this and they aren't going to risk thirty grand of their own money with no cast iron guarantees. Fleet owners will also drop EVs if the figures don't meet expectations.

Even if the consumer's fears are unjustified they have an influence on the market and also the second hand market which is not inconsiderable, If people aren't confident about buying new EVs then there are going to be big problems shifting the EVs that have been traded in.

 

[Steep]

How can you be so sure that battery life will be 20 years? Current batteries on ICE vehicles are recommended to change every five years or so and batteries suplied with cameras, bikes, phones, etc can show serious decline after 2 or 3 years. People see this and they aren't going to risk thirty grand of their own money with no cast iron guarantees. Fleet owners will also drop EVs if the figures don't meet expectations.

Even if the consumer's fears are unjustified they have an influence on the market and also the second hand market which is not inconsiderable, If people aren't confident about buying new EVs then there are going to be big problems shifting the EVs that have been traded in.

Batteries on ICE vehicles? you mean lead acid batteries? totally different technology. If you mean the lithium battery in a hybrid, they are rated to last between 100 and 200k miles. I have no idea where you got your five years life idea but suspect it's the same place you got all your other mistaken ones.

I'll give you a real life example - EV car (MG5) used for business has done 140k miles, the main battery is still 92% effective, (incidentally, the brakes are almost as good as new) at that rate of decline the battery will still be 85% effective at 200k miles. How many ICE cars would even reach 140k miles without major servicing and parts replacement.

My first work EV car's battery measured 98% good at 49k miles. This is actual real world experience.

 

[Clive K]

Batteries on ICE vehicles? you mean lead acid batteries? totally different technology. If you mean the lithium battery in a hybrid, they are rated to last between 100 and 200k miles. I have no idea where you got your five years life idea but suspect it's the same place you got all your other mistaken ones.

I'll give you a real life example - EV car (MG5) used for business has done 140k miles, the main battery is still 92% effective, (incidentally, the brakes are almost as good as new) at that rate of decline the battery will still be 85% effective at 200k miles. How many ICE cars would even reach 140k miles without major servicing and parts replacement.

My first work EV car's battery measured 98% good at 49k miles. This is actual real world experience.

So you don't think that Lithium batteries that have usage of ordinary motorists will decline like the Lithium batteries in phones, cameras and electric bikes do? Would you risk fifty grand of your own money to find out? Seems like the public won't which is why EV sales have declined recently.

 

[Steep]

So you don't think that Lithium batteries that have usage of ordinary motorists will decline like the Lithium batteries in phones, cameras and electric bikes do? Would you risk fifty grand of your own money to find out? Seems like the public won't which is why EV sales have declined recently.

I guess you didn't read my post. I've driven over 140 thousand electric miles and would be very happy to spend my money on an electric car. I've never owned or driven a less troublesome vehicle.

 

[ancient_mariner]

So you don't think that Lithium batteries that have usage of ordinary motorists will decline like the Lithium batteries in phones, cameras and electric bikes do? Would you risk fifty grand of your own money to find out? Seems like the public won't which is why EV sales have declined recently.

10 years ago this was near enough true, but not really now. Battery tech is much better than it was, and when not built down to a price should be much more reliable than it used to be..

I have often wondered if one of the biggest turnoffs for the non-EV owning public was EV owners themselves. So often smug levels go into overdrive and they become unbearable. I'm speaking of personal experience in the real world in the past, rather than online, although online is often worse. The one good thing about EVs being more common now is that the owners are less likely to talk down to other people. YMMV.

 

[Steep]

10 years ago this was near enough true, but not really now. Battery tech is much better than it was, and when not built down to a price should be much more reliable than it used to be..

I have often wondered if one of the biggest turnoffs for the non-EV owning public was EV owners themselves. So often smug levels go into overdrive and they become unbearable. I'm speaking of personal experience in the real world in the past, rather than online, although online is often worse. The one good thing about EVs being more common now is that the owners are less likely to talk down to other people. YMMV.

I won't tell you about the guy I met in a car park, driving an 18 year old Volvo V70 estate spewing fumes everywhere who accused me of ruining the earth in my electric car

 

[ancient_mariner]

I won't tell you about the guy I met in a car park, driving an 18 year old Volvo V70 estate spewing fumes everywhere who accused me of ruining the earth in my electric car

Thanks for not doing that. Oh, you did.

 

[Clive K]

I won't tell you about the guy I met in a car park, driving an 18 year old Volvo V70 estate spewing fumes everywhere who accused me of ruining the earth in my electric car

Thanks for reminding me. I had a 15 year old Volvo 245 state that I bought with 250k miles on the clock and sold for a profit 3 years later approaching 300k. The exhaust was clean and I had absolutely nothing go wrong with it.

But of course you won't see the ecological impact of actually sourcing the materials and building an EV.

Regards AM's post about reliable batteries; I currently ned to renew two Liihium batteries that are less than four years old. The newest one is 14 months old and absolutely dead.

 

[Steep]

Regards AM's post about reliable batteries; I currently ned to renew two Liihium batteries that are less than four years old. The newest one is 14 months old and absolutely dead.

They, Are, Not, The. Same. Thing.

 

[Nod]

The 10 year old Leaf Mrs Nod recently changed had over 80% of its battery capacity left (according to the buyer). 60,000 miles. Even when EV batteries are felt to be too depleted for EV use, they're perfectly good for use as domestic storage.
No need to find specialist disposal sites every year for the dead oil.
Battery technology is improving rapidly, as is the infrastructure for recharging.

 

[ancient_mariner]

I won't tell you about the guy I met in a car park, driving an 18 year old Volvo V70 estate spewing fumes everywhere who accused me of ruining the earth in my electric car

I think this is the equivalent of the EV batteries that burst into flames spontaneously. We know they exist, but they aren't really representative of how things are normally.

 

[Clive K]

A bit more about VW and EVs

Electric Shock: An Existential Crisis in the German Auto Industry

Electric cars are selling poorly, and many German manufacturers are still focusing on the combustion engine. The threat from cheaper Chinese competitors is growing. Might this be the death knell of Germany's fabled automobile industry?

www.spiegel.de

 

[Mr Bump]

Good vid from the Electric Viking about VW

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxsolNQo5RU

 

[wyx087]

The 10 year old Leaf Mrs Nod recently changed had over 80% of its battery capacity left (according to the buyer). 60,000 miles.

Out of interest, how much did you sell it for?
I guess your buyer plugged in a dongle and read health on their phone using LeafSpy?

My 2014 Leaf Tekna with ~64k miles on the clock has 79% state of health when I read it last month. Not bad considering over last 12 months, the Leaf had its battery depleted every single day as I was using vehicle-2-home, essentially using the vehicle battery as home battery, time-shift most of my home usage to 7p/kWh overnight.

I had a 15 year old Volvo 245 state that I bought with 250k miles on the clock and sold for a profit 3 years later approaching 300k. The exhaust was clean and I had absolutely nothing go wrong with it.

Yes, the exhaust is clean compared to less well maintained vehicle. But it is still putting out huge amount of toxic gas at street level. Put it another way, would you be happy sitting with the engine running in a closed garage for 50k miles worth of time? My guess would be no, but it's okay for other people to breath it in for your personal travel benefits.

The idea that battery manufacture produces a lot of emission needs re-visiting, it is a tiny number compared to vast amount of pollution from ICE during use.
The idea that EV moves emission to power plants is also no longer true, as UK shutdown its last coal plant in October. Every mile driven today in my 10 year old Nissan Leaf is cleaner than 10 years ago. This is key advantage with EV's, it gets cleaner as grid is cleaned up.
The idea that EV batteries will need replacing also not true. It's not true for my 10 years old first-gen EV, it is more false for latest battery fitted in modern vehicles. After life in vehicle, the battery can then be re-used in stationary applications. Finally, many years after re-life in stationary battery, they can be recycled.

EV whole-life emissions calculator: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator
coal shutdown: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y35qz73n8o
EV battery re-use: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/...es-power-dutch-stadiums-energy-storage-system
and: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...ic-vehicle-batteries-will-go-when-they-retire
Battery recycle: https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ (current supply is not enough for mass recycling)

Personally, I view biggest benefit with EV is ability to power home (I'm using V2H right now) and become an inverse of virtual power plant (VPP). The latter can soak up excess cheap renwables so that enables more renewables to be built making electricity even cheaper. This is why home tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Go exist, you provide the sink, helping Octopus to balance the grid.

 

[gman]

I think I heard on the radio this morning that Nissan are now struggling and there was much blame being pointed towards China and their increasing success with EV's. It will be interesting to see if Trump does in fact apply huge tariffs and how that may affect China's EV market and of course in return any raw materials required by the EV industry outside of China.

 

[Clive K]

Out of interest, how much did you sell it for?
I guess your buyer plugged in a dongle and read health on their phone using LeafSpy?

My 2014 Leaf Tekna with ~64k miles on the clock has 79% state of health when I read it last month. Not bad considering over last 12 months, the Leaf had its battery depleted every single day as I was using vehicle-2-home, essentially using the vehicle battery as home battery, time-shift most of my home usage to 7p/kWh overnight.


Yes, the exhaust is clean compared to less well maintained vehicle. But it is still putting out huge amount of toxic gas at street level. Put it another way, would you be happy sitting with the engine running in a closed garage for 50k miles worth of time? My guess would be no, but it's okay for other people to breath it in for your personal travel benefits.

The idea that battery manufacture produces a lot of emission needs re-visiting, it is a tiny number compared to vast amount of pollution from ICE during use.
The idea that EV moves emission to power plants is also no longer true, as UK shutdown its last coal plant in October. Every mile driven today in my 10 year old Nissan Leaf is cleaner than 10 years ago. This is key advantage with EV's, it gets cleaner as grid is cleaned up.
The idea that EV batteries will need replacing also not true. It's not true for my 10 years old first-gen EV, it is more false for latest battery fitted in modern vehicles. After life in vehicle, the battery can then be re-used in stationary applications. Finally, many years after re-life in stationary battery, they can be recycled.

EV whole-life emissions calculator: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/ev-life-cycle-assessment-calculator
coal shutdown: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y35qz73n8o
EV battery re-use: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/...es-power-dutch-stadiums-energy-storage-system
and: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...ic-vehicle-batteries-will-go-when-they-retire
Battery recycle: https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/ (current supply is not enough for mass recycling)

Personally, I view biggest benefit with EV is ability to power home (I'm using V2H right now) and become an inverse of virtual power plant (VPP). The latter can soak up excess cheap renwables so that enables more renewables to be built making electricity even cheaper. This is why home tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Go exist, you provide the sink, helping Octopus to balance the grid.

Envionmental effects of Lithium battery production

https://greenly.earth/en-us/blog/ecology-news/the-harmful-effects-of-our-lithium-batteries

'Clean' electricity generation reliant on nuclear power

Clean sources of generation are set to cover all of the world’s additional electricity demand over the next three years - News - IEA

Clean sources of generation are set to cover all of the world’s additional electricity demand over the next three years - News from the International Energy Agency

www.iea.org