Is it worth buying a lens now before prices go any higher?
- Thread starter Iiyama
- Start date
Production in Japan has always been pretty closed - i.e. suppliers are japanese, the manufacturing is japanese etc.
This means their volumes are less than, say chinese manufacters. This means in the downtown, they have less buffer in terms of other customers to ride the storm.
A LOT of Japanese sub-manufacturers are going to the wall, or are close, and the big companies that used to prop them up, are having trouble proping themselves up.
This then means that canon etc will likely have to pay more for sub assemblies/mouldings etc - and may also mean that supply issues become more troublesome which will lead to troubles in availability.
for example - to de-risk canon likely have 2x suppliers for each part. Now their volumes have dropped, there is unlikely enough volume for 2, so they single source components. this means ANY quality/material issues will stop production.
Canon may also start "building to order" - as a lot of shops are reducing inventory - and you can be sure canon don't want to hold it.
Their fixed costs have been reduced somewhat - but a factory costs X to run whether it is making 10 or 10000 lenses.
So - all in all - expect
- higher prices (certainly 1H 09) - may reduce IF demand picks up - 1H 10 would be my guess
- availability problems
- maybe discontinue "weak sellers"
- expect more cashback offers and better retail bundling in stores
- more of a push to consumer sector - the pro sector is pretty steady
Just my opinion.
This means their volumes are less than, say chinese manufacters. This means in the downtown, they have less buffer in terms of other customers to ride the storm.
A LOT of Japanese sub-manufacturers are going to the wall, or are close, and the big companies that used to prop them up, are having trouble proping themselves up.
This then means that canon etc will likely have to pay more for sub assemblies/mouldings etc - and may also mean that supply issues become more troublesome which will lead to troubles in availability.
for example - to de-risk canon likely have 2x suppliers for each part. Now their volumes have dropped, there is unlikely enough volume for 2, so they single source components. this means ANY quality/material issues will stop production.
Canon may also start "building to order" - as a lot of shops are reducing inventory - and you can be sure canon don't want to hold it.
Their fixed costs have been reduced somewhat - but a factory costs X to run whether it is making 10 or 10000 lenses.
So - all in all - expect
- higher prices (certainly 1H 09) - may reduce IF demand picks up - 1H 10 would be my guess
- availability problems
- maybe discontinue "weak sellers"
- expect more cashback offers and better retail bundling in stores
- more of a push to consumer sector - the pro sector is pretty steady
Just my opinion.
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Terrywoodenpic
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This is a good but entry level lens. I expect the price to rise in line with the fall in the pound.
It will remain a good second hand buy as people upgrade to "L" glass ... need it or not...
However I do not think it will ever be the bargain it is now, in the future.
It will remain a good second hand buy as people upgrade to "L" glass ... need it or not...
However I do not think it will ever be the bargain it is now, in the future.
